Las Vegas Heat Check (May 21, 2026)

This contract allows participants to trade on the high temperature recorded at **Harry Reid International Airport (LAS)** on May 21, 2026. Each outcome functions as a binary option, settling at either **$1.00** (if the condition is met) or **$0.00** (if it is not).

The current pricing reflects the market's collective probability for an early-season desert heatwave versus a rare spring chill.

### **Market Positions**

| Contract Outcome | Current Price | Implied Probability | Payout if True |

|---|---|---|---|

| **High Temp > 100°F** | **$0.94** | 94% | $1.00 |

| **High Temp < 66°F** | **$0.05** | 5% | $1.00 |

| **High Temp < 55°F** | **$0.02** | 2% | $1.00 |

### **Contract Specifications**

 * **Expiration Date:** May 21, 2026.

 * **Settlement Source:** Official daily maximum temperature reported by the **National Weather Service (NWS)** at the LAS station.

 * **Resolution Criteria:**

   * The "Above 100°F" contract triggers if the recorded high is T > 100.0.

   * The "Below" contracts trigger if the recorded high is strictly less than the specified value (T < 66.0 or T < 55.0).

 * **Payout Structure:** All contracts are "winner-take-all." If you hold a contract for an event that occurs, you receive $1.00 per share. If the event does not occur, the share value drops to zero.

### **Market Analysis & Sentiment**

> **Note:** The heavy weighting toward the **$0.94** price point suggests the market is nearly certain of a triple-digit day. Conversely, the **$0.02** "Below 55°F" position is a "long-shot" hedge against an extreme, record-breaking weather anomaly or a significant localized storm system.

> 

Would you like to adjust the strike prices or see how the potential ROI changes if the "Above 100°F" price fluctuates?

To help you refine these markets, here is a breakdown of the **Return on Investment (ROI)** and potential profit scenarios based on your current pricing.

### **ROI Analysis Table**

| Contract | Entry Price | Max Profit (per share) | Return on Investment | Market Sentiment |

|---|---|---|---|---|

| **> 100°F** | **$0.94** | $0.06 | **~6.4%** | Highly Probable / "Safe" |

| **< 66°F** | **$0.05** | $0.95 | **1,900%** | Low Probability / Hedge |

| **< 55°F** | **$0.02** | $0.98 | **4,900%** | Extreme Long-shot |

### **Strategy Considerations**

 * **The Favorite ($0.94):** This is a high-conviction play. While the return is low ($0.06 per share), it functions more like a high-yield savings vehicle for capital if the weather data supports a near-certain heatwave.

 * **The Hedges:** The contracts priced at **$0.05** and **$0.02** represent significant "asymmetric" opportunities. If a rare late-May cold front hits, a small $20 investment in the $0.02 contract would settle for **$1,000**.

 * **The "Dead Zone":** Note that if the temperature lands between **66°F and 100°F**, all three currently listed contracts would expire at **$0.00**.

Would you like to add a "Middle Ground" contract (e.g., 80°F to 90°F) to capture the most likely alternative, or should we simulate how a $1,000 bankroll would look across these three positions?